The Fourth Pit of the Eighth Circle

I was now wholly set on looking into the disclosed depth that was bathed with tears of anguish, and I saw folk coming, silent and weeping, through the circular valley, at the pace at which litanies go in this world. As my sight descended deeper among them, each appeared marvelously distorted from the chin to the beginning of the chest; for toward their reins their face was turned, and they must needs go backwards, because they were deprived of looking forward. Perchance sometimes by force of palsy one has been thus completely twisted, but I never saw it, nor do I think it can be. - Dante, The Divine Comedy: Inferno

In his Inferno, Dante gave the dreadful punishment of being made to walk with their heads turned backwards to fortune tellers, diviners and those who attempt for foresee the future.  Its a terrible punishment, but its threat hasn't been very effective in stopping people from making predictions about the future, whether they be right, wrong, or utterly bonkers.  Its not going to stop me either, but I hope that the worst that will happen is that I am merely foolishly wrong, rather than having to spend eternity doing calinsthetics with Mystic Meg.  So, what do I think might happen in 2009?

First up, the economy.

If you have a secret lair, desert island, hollow volcano or means of leaving earth, make use of them now.  This year is going to be very bad.  Its entirely possible that one or more of the clearing banks will end up fully nationalised.  I expect many more famous names to go to the wall this year; suppliers of things that require major cap-ex , middle ranking luxury (the really rich will endure) and anything to do with the building trade to have a particular torrid time.

The Governments arms are increasingly tied by the hoooooge national debt we've run up, so I don't expect a  pump priming programme like the one that Obama has planned for the US. There are still advantages to the mighty greenback, as the yanks are being reminded right now. Having the worlds reserve currency as means of exchange means you can play a bit faster and looser than we can.  Nonetheless, I'd expect more 'quantitative easing', which is central banker speak for printing loads of money and throwing it out of helicopters.  They may chose to used one of the HM Treasury controlled banks to run this.

Speaking of the Obama public works programme, expect it to get much, much bigger. Potentially generationally defining big; think Tennessee Valley Authority or the Hoover Dam, but based on green technology and infrastructure.

Its not beyond the realms of possibility that joining the Euro will look much, much more appealing as the year goes on.  Broon will never have it though.  However, he may well call a general election this year, maybe in the spring before it gets worse and after he's had his photo taken with Barry O outside number ten.  It won't work.  Hopefully we'll have a hung parliament and Vince Cable will get the Chancellor's job.  Worst case scenario: we get the fucking Tories back.  

I appear to have strayed into UK politics there, so let's do US politics next.

Obama will disappoint loads of people.  He's not actually a superhero, despite what Marvel think (how amazingly cool is that Spiderman / Obama fist bump by the way?) and he is a centrist.  And yet, and yet....  He's appointed a cabinet with not just competent people in it, but potentially great people.  He's got a nobel prize winning scientist as Secretary for Energy who's confirmation hearings read like a dream of what you want from a SecEn.  I will disagree with somethings he does, and he will have to play low down and dirty politics (after all, he does it so well) but I expect a pretty good year.  I hope and expect swift leadership on climate change, closing Gitmo, draw down in Iraq and decisive action on healthcare.  I do not expect: huge change in Israel policy (it'll change a bit, but no huge swing), results in Afghanistan, charges brought against Bush and Cheney.  

Sport-wise, I'm going to wind my neck out and say England for the Ashes, then KP will bugger off to the IPL.  United for the league.  Inter or Barca for Big Cup.  Berbatov to wake up and score the goal of the season at some point. Ferrari for F1.  Dunfermline Athletic to finish third in the only competition that matters, the Irn Bru Scottish First Division.

Finally, Apocalypse watch: expect Yellowstone to unzip and blow us all to kingdom come so that the entire midwest looks like something from the Inferno, God help us all.  Expect this to happen the day after I get a girlfriend.